CEO’s post-election recap: What it means for Washington

(UPDATED November 12, 2024 at 8:00 am) 

While the nation was captivated by the Federal elections, many races closer to home will have a significant impact on the future for Washington businesses and residents. Here’s a quick recap on some of the competitions you might not have followed as closely. 

Please note: Some election results are not yet final, and are thus subject to change from below.

Initiatives: 

Washingtonians went to polls on four high-profile but opaquely worded initiatives. In Washington, many laws can be repealed through referendum if sufficient signatures are gathered within a window of time after the laws are passed. To repeal or alter these laws after that window has closed sponsors need to file an initiative. Referendums are sometimes easier to understand – asking voters if they want to “repeal” or “maintain” a given law passed by the legislature. Initiatives to repeal a law, however, ask for a “yes” vote to pass a new law that erases the existing law. Adding additional complexity to this issue is the Fiscal Impact Statements that the legislature added to ballot titles for initiatives that impact revenue. This year’s initiatives were the first to be caught up in that requirement, highlighting the specific programs that would be defunded and by how much by each initiative. 

Placing an initiative on the ballot is costly. Paid signature gatherers charge anywhere between $2 and $20 per signature. Each initiative needed 324,516 signatures to qualify (plus a sizable margin on top of that to account for invalid signatures), and the total cost for collecting signatures for these four initiatives left few resources to mount an effective voter education effort. Initiative opponents, in comparison, raised over $40 million to finance a unified “no” campaign, compared to only $8.5 raised for initiative supporters. 

As of election night, three of the four initiatives: 2124 allowing workers to opt out of long-term care tax; 2117 repealing the state’s Climate Commitment Act; 2109 repealing the state’s capital gains tax; all failed significantly. Initiative 2066, which prohibits state and local governments or utilities from blocking access to natural gas, appears to have narrowly won with 51.56%, up slightly from 51.4% on election night. The “stop the gas ban” measure won 35 of 39 counties but lost King County with the “no” vote approaching 60%. With 20.9% of votes outstanding statewide, and an estimated 20% left in King County – I-2066 is still on the bubble, but holding - a good sign for its eventual success. 

There are growing concerns from initiative supporters that the voters have now essentially “approved” a hike in payroll taxes, carbon taxes, and the new capital gains tax; the Democratic-controlled legislature may arguably be further emboldened to implement a state-wide payroll tax similar to the “jump-start” tax in Seattle – currently set as a tax on most workers making over $189,371 per year. Olympia insiders have said that the votes are there to pass such a tax, and many believe the state’s nearly $5 billion deficit can only be filled with a new tax of this magnitude – something that is more politically attractive to most Democratic members, many of whom have never served in office during a time of dwindling resources and tight budgets. 

Legislature: 

Democrats already enjoy strong majorities in the House 58–40, and Senate 29–20. The net change appears clearer now, with a 1 vote loss for Republicans in each chamber - heading into session 59-39 in the House, and 30-19 in the Senate. 

10th Legislative District (Island County, parts of Snohomish and Skagit): 

Senator Ron Muzzall (R) has surged ahead of his Democratic challenger, Janet St. Clair, in late breaking ballots. This seat was seen as one of the most likely to flip. - but it appears Muzzall will hold on by a healthy margin.

14th District (Klickitat & Skamania Counties):

The 2020 Redistricting plan ended up in Federal court, with plaintiffs arguing that the legislative district surrounding the Yakima valley did not comply with the Federal Voter’s Rights Act, failing to give region’s Hispanic community having an adequate opportunity to elect a candidate of their preference.  

The commission had drawn a “majority-minority” legislative district in the 15th District, in which 73% of residents were of Hispanic background. The court ruled for the plaintiffs and drew a new “minority-majority” district that had notable impacts. First, it gerrymandered the first Hispanic woman Senator, Nikki Torres, from the Yakima region out of the district she was elected to in 2022 with 68% of the vote. Second, it removed moderate and conservative Hispanic voters from the district and replaced them with non-Hispanic progressive voters. The final district adopted by the court is 50.2% Hispanic citizens of voting age population, 2.6% lower than the one adopted by the commission. Senator Torres, deciding not to move into the new district, will end her time in the Senate in 2026. Neighboring Republican Senator Curtis King moved into the court-drawn 14th District, and early vote counts show him holding a commanding lead. 

17th Legislative District (Clark County): 

Redistricting by the Federal Courts has ripple effects outside the Yakima area, pushing 12 incumbent Republicans from their districts and creating tight races in Clark County legislative districts. 

Representative Paul Harris (R) is expanding his lead on Democrat Marla Keethler, and will hold the seat. In House Position 2, Democrat Terri Niles has recently fallen behind Republican David Stuebe but with only 32 votes separating the two this race will go to recount.

18th District (Clark County):

Another district impacted by the Federal redistricting case is the 18th District in suburban Clark County. Brad Benton, the son of long-time Republican Senator and Trump administration official, Don Benton, is trailing his Democratic opponent, Adrian Cortes, but has significantly closed the gap to only 232 votes. Republican candidates in the two House seats are faring better than Benton, where the tightest race saw Republican Jon Ley defeat Democrat John Zingale by a full 2.86% in Position 2. 

26th Legislative District (Gig Harbor): 

In loss for House Republicans, former Representative Jesse Young (R) is still battling for his old seat against Democrat Addison Richards. Young closed the gap in late returns but Richards will hold on to defeat Young, 51.59% to 48.29%. 

45th District (East King County): 

One of the most interesting races was a Democrat-on-Democrat squabble in Kirkland and parts of East King County, where long-time legislative veteran Larry Springer faced a strong challenge from the left. Springer is cruising to a strong finish, giving some relief to business interests in Olympia who have found Springer to be a reasonable voice and a receptive ear on issues impacting employers. 

48th District & Insurance Commissioner: 

State Senator Patty Kuderer soundly defeated Republican Phil Fortunato in her race for Insurance Commissioner. This opens her current Senate seat for appointment in the new year. Both 48th District representatives, Amy Walen and Vandana Slatter, are expected to seek the seat. Democratic Precinct Committee Officers will meet to recommend three names to the King County Council and will select one of those names to serve as Kuderer’s replacement until a special election can be held. The potential vacancy in either House seat could also trigger interest and subsequent vacancies on city councils inside the district.  

Congress & State Supreme Court

4th Congressional (Yakima & Tri-Cities):  

In a tight race for Central Washington’s 4th Congressional, incumbent Republican Dan Newhouse faces an inter-party challenge from the right because of Newhouse’s impeachment vote against President-Elect Donald Trump. Newhouse has slightly expanded his lead from election night and subsequent ballot drops and now holds what appears to be an insurmountable 51.78% to 46.53%. This race will not shift the balance of power in Washington, DC. 

State Supreme Court

Finally, while all nine statewide offices will continue to be held by Democrats, there is a surprisingly tight race for the Washington State Supreme Court, where South King County judge Dave Larson will be edged out by Sal Mungia by less than a percent.

Final Thoughts:

Democrats were hoping for a super-majority in both chambers heading into the election. This would grant them the authority to send constitutional amendments directly to the voters. This is unlikely to materialize, however they are likely to pick up the additional seat needed in the Senate to be able to pass certain pieces of legislation without help from Republicans. Authorizing the issuance of bonds, which is a customary part of infrastructure packages like transportation projects and capital budget spending, relies on this heightened 60% threshold that is set in the Washington State Constitution. Expansion of gambling has a similar threshold.